Manpower shortage: Hong Kong is expected to lack 180,000 workers by 2028

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Some traditional positions may gradually be replaced by automation amidst economic restructuring, as well as technological advancement.

Hong Kong’s Labour and Welfare Bureau (LWB) has published the report on the 2023 Manpower Projection, estimating that the city will face a manpower shortage of 180,000 workers by 2028.

Based on the year 2023, the latest round of manpower projection (MP) projects the manpower situation five years ahead (i.e. 2028). In addition to overall manpower trends, the report provides a detailed analysis of the manpower situation in 17 selected industries, as well as occupations in demand and essential skills. The 17 selected industries cover over 2.8mn workers or 80% of Hong Kong's workforce, and contribute more than 70% of the city's Gross Domestic Product.

According to the report, Hong Kong's economy has gradually recovered from the pandemic which led to an increase in manpower demand in 2023. However, the local labour force (excluding foreign domestic helpers) had decreased for three consecutive years during the pandemic to 3.5mn, causing a tight labour market with a shortage of approximately 50,000 workers.

Most of the selected industries have experienced manpower shortages of varying degrees, with more notable gaps observed in some labour-intensive sectors such as construction, city operations, health services, accommodation and food, retail, tourism, as well as in the innovation and technology industry that the Government is actively promoting. Each of these sectors reported a shortage of over 5,000 workers.

Hong Kong's economy is projected to grow by 3.2% annually during the projection period, driving sustained high demand for manpower from major industries. By 2028, the local labour force is projected to slightly increase to 3.56mn. The supply of local manpower would nevertheless fall short to meet the rising demand, resulting in a widening manpower shortage of 180,000, an increase of 130,000 from 2023.

Due to an ageing workforce and a lack of new entrants, the projection indicates that there would be a severe shortage of "skilled technical workers", accounting for over one-third of the total shortage in 2028.

All selected industries are projected to face manpower shortages of varying degrees. The respective shortage among 10 industries would exceed 10,000 workers.

Manpower balance for selected industries

Looking ahead, economic restructuring, technology advancement, as well as business automation and digitalisation across industries would alter demand for job roles and skills in the market. Even conventional industries like the legal services and accountancy are embracing digital transformation. Some traditional positions, such as clerical and administrative roles performing routine and mundane tasks, may gradually be replaced by automation.

Meanwhile, there would be rising demand for new roles related to digitalised operations, such as artificial intelligence (AI) specialists, data analysts, and information technology experts.

Chris Sun, Secretary for Labour and Welfare, stated, "According to the latest MP findings, there would be severe manpower shortages in Hong Kong in the next five years. The Government and all quarters of the community should collaborate to address this challenge and consider how to put our precious workforce to good use, enhance the quality and quantity of local manpower and increase overall productivity with a view to promoting the high-quality development of Hong Kong.

"The Government would enhance and expand local training to preserve the competitiveness of the local workforce amidst the rapidly changing market. In facing the challenge of manpower shortages, Hong Kong would continue to import outside talent and labour at an appropriate scale to meet imminent needs."

Photo / HKSAR Government Press Releases